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How much of NBU’s $899.6 million buildout rides on customer growth?

NBU’s five-year plan calls for $899.6 million in capital work. Customers’ future costs depend partly on how actual borrowing and growth compare with the forecast.

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Blue line illustration of a water treatment facility, pipes, scrubland, and distant houses beneath a wide cream sky.
Illustration: Water infrastructure and nearby homes represent utility investment and customer growth; this does not depict a specific NBU project.Original editorial illustration; not a photograph and does not depict the reported event or an exact property.Comal.News Visual Desk · Original illustration · Source ↗ · Comal.News original illustration ↗

NBU's five-year plan pairs $899.589 million in capital spending with $404.349 million in new-debt requirements and assumes FY 2027 net customer growth of 4.71% for electric, 3.71% for water and 3.02% for wastewater.

Those are forecasts in NBU's Financial Operating Plan. They do not establish what any one household will pay.

From the source record

NBU FY 2027 Financial Operating Plan; Comal.News calculation of the official plan.All three bars show planned new-debt requirements in the same fiscal year.

The utility plans to build now and cover a growing stream of debt payments over time. More customers could help support those payments. If growth or other planned funding comes in differently, the scheduled payments would still need to be covered. Actual borrowing and growth will test the forecast.

What it costs

The plan projects FY 2027–2031 capital outlays, new-debt requirements and debt service in the amounts listed in the table. A new-debt requirement is the portion of planned capital funding assigned to future borrowing. NBU has not necessarily borrowed that amount.

NBU planned capital outlays, new-debt requirements and annual debt service, fiscal years 2027–2031; $ millions
Fiscal yearCapital outlayNew debtDebt service
2027244.162140.76753.535
2028197.41181.71656.528
2029166.321101.38364.905
2030161.23064.44568.653
2031130.46516.03868.773

The figures are plan forecasts, not actual borrowing or spending.

In FY 2027, the planned $140.767 million new-debt requirement equals 57.65% of the $244.162 million capital outlay, according to a Comal.News calculation of the official plan. That share shows how much of the first year's capital program the plan expects new debt to fund.

The FY 2027 capital budget is $39.7 million below the FY 2026 budgeted $283.9 million, according to the plan. The five-year financing question remains: planned debt service continues to rise, as the table shows.

Who pays, and who benefits?

Across NBU's systems, planned annual debt service rises from $53.535 million in FY 2027 to $68.773 million in FY 2031, a cost the utility must cover while serving its customers. Debt service means payments on borrowing. A project can be paid for over years even when the work happens sooner.

New debt is only one planned source of FY 2027 capital funding. The plan also anticipates $49.376 million in proceeds from prior debt, $19.205 million in impact fees, $4.476 million in CIAOC funding and grants, $5.555 million in Texas Water Development Board funding, and $24.784 million from revenues and excess funds. Changes in those sources could alter the eventual borrowing mix.

The FY 2027 new-debt requirement is split unevenly among services: $21.460 million for electric, $59.936 million for water and $59.371 million for wastewater. A customer's bill depends on the applicable tariff and usage. These capital totals alone cannot establish that bill.

What has to go right

The plan forecasts debt-service coverage of 2.95 times in FY 2027 and 3.07 times in FY 2031. Coverage measures the financial room the plan expects for scheduled debt payments. It does not translate by itself into dollars on a customer's bill.

The growth assumptions differ by service. Electric customer counts are projected to rise 4.71% net in FY 2027, compared with 3.71% for water and 3.02% for wastewater. The services have different planned borrowing amounts and customer bases, so each forecast matters.

What the records leave for the next test

The plan says its new-debt requirement may differ from the debt NBU actually issues. The next official debt-issuance record will show how much of the forecast becomes borrowing and on what terms. Readers can use the capital and debt tables in the Financial Operating Plan as the baseline for that comparison.

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