Housing Monitor: November 2026, housing turns neutral while asking prices fall

Scores run from −100 (bearish for prices) to +100 (bullish). Hard distress data is not published online, so its weight is redistributed.

Dashboard

Three moves dominate this month’s dashboard. Active listings were only 1.2% above a year earlier, while pending sales rose 2.3%, leaving the sales pipeline broadly aligned with supply. New listings fell 51.9% from a year earlier, a sharp drop in the flow of fresh competition. Yet the median asking price was down 5%, showing that a steadier balance of listings and pending contracts has not translated into stronger seller pricing.

Year-over-year changes are the primary read; housing data is seasonal. Momentum compares the last 3 months with the 3 before, each against a year earlier.

Seller stress

Price cuts appeared on 23% of active listings in October, down 0.4 percentage points from a year earlier. Their three-month average was higher, at 26.1%. Read together, the figures suggest that discounting remains a meaningful part of selling a home even though the latest annual comparison did not worsen. A price cut is a change to an asking price, not evidence of the discount a buyer ultimately received at closing.

Homes spent 86 days on the market in the October listing data, 2.3% fewer than a year before. That modest improvement does not settle the pricing question: median list price fell 5% to $479,000, and list price per square foot fell 4.1% to $232. Sellers can encounter slightly faster movement while still facing pressure to set a competitive initial price. These are listing-market measures; the closed-sale and home-value series arrive on different schedules.

Supply and liquidity

Comal County had 1,786 active listings in October, up 1.2% from a year earlier, and a three-month average of 1,879. New listings numbered 300 for the month, down 51.9% year over year, with a three-month average of 362. The stock of available homes barely grew despite that much smaller inflow. The distinction matters: a sharp change in new listings does not by itself mean that buyers have fewer homes to choose from immediately.

Pending listings reached 392, up 2.3% from a year earlier; their three-month average was 429.3. The pending-to-active ratio was 0.219, close to 0.217 a year ago, so this month’s supply increase did not produce a clear deterioration in absorption. The same ratio stood at 0.429 in October 2019. That longer comparison shows how much more choice buyers have relative to contracts than they did before the pandemic-era market, even though the latest annual movement is small.

A lower ratio means more homes on the market for each one going under contract.

Prices

The lagging price measures remain negative. Zillow’s August median sale price was $464,393, down 1.1% from a year earlier; its three-month change was -1.2%. The September Zillow Home Value Index was $431,172, down 1% from a year earlier. These series measure different things and should not be treated as interchangeable prices for a particular home. Together, they support the model’s restrained near-term view rather than a claim that values have already recovered.

There is a point of disagreement inside the price data: the Home Value Index’s three-month momentum was positive at 0.4% even while its annual change remained negative. A short improvement can coexist with a lower level than last year. The model’s -3% to 1% outlook allows for both continued slippage and modest stabilization over the next three to six months. September’s typical rent was $1,555, up 0.7% year over year, a much smaller annual movement than the decline in asking prices for homes.

Zillow Home Value Index (mid-tier, smoothed, seasonally adjusted) and Zillow median sale price.

Different property populations (listings vs. closed sales); track the spread's direction, not its level.

Builders and new supply

September brought 174 housing permits, up 41.5% from a year earlier. The trailing 12-month count was 2,407, up 2.5%, or 33.7 permits per 1,000 county households. The monthly jump is a leading indicator of potential new supply, while the much smaller gain over a full year argues against treating one month as a construction boom. Permits indicate authorized activity; they are not completed homes available for purchase.

The model gives new construction a positive component score of 23. That score can sit beside weaker prices because more building changes the future supply picture rather than proving present demand is strong. If permitted homes are completed and offered while existing listings remain elevated, buyers could gain choices and sellers could face additional competition. The next permit releases and listing counts will show whether September’s increase persists and whether it appears in homes offered for sale.

U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey. Permits are not completions.

Permits are not completions, and household size for newcomers can differ from the county average.

Affordability

Principal and interest on the modeled purchase take 26.7% of the county’s median household income, up from 25.6% a year earlier. The September estimate is $2,263 a month with 20% down and a 6.86% 30-year mortgage rate, measured against median annual household income of $101,889. It excludes property taxes, insurance and association dues, so it is a partial ownership-cost measure. The worsening income share helps explain why lower asking prices have not, by themselves, restored buying power.

Rates moved against buyers after September: the October monthly average was 7.33%, 1.07 percentage points above a year earlier. Freddie Mac’s November 5 weekly reading was 7.18%. The weekly observation is more recent but is not a November monthly average. Mortgage rates are a leading constraint on what financed buyers can pay; a lower list price does not guarantee a lower payment when borrowing costs rise. Next month’s rate and affordability readings will matter more to the call than a single weekly change.

Principal and interest only, 20% down, 30-year fixed at the month's average Freddie Mac rate. Property tax, insurance and HOA are not included.

Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

Principal and interest only, 20% down, 30-year fixed at the month's average Freddie Mac rate. Property tax, insurance and HOA are not included.

Economy and demographics

The county’s September unemployment rate was 4%, up 0.1 percentage point from a year earlier, and the number of employed residents was 96,386, down 0.2%. Those readings point to a softer labor backdrop, but not an abrupt break. First-quarter payroll jobs totaled 77,482, up 1% year over year. That jobs measure is older than the September household-employment data and counts jobs rather than employed residents, so the figures cannot be added or read as a single monthly trend.

Economic activity and housing demand do not move in lockstep. A county can add payroll jobs while high mortgage payments constrain the number of households able or willing to buy at current prices. The model’s economy/demographics component scored -29, and its affordability component scored -40. Those readings help explain why slightly better pending-sales activity does not produce a bullish overall call. Watch the next labor release alongside mortgage rates and contracts: each addresses a different part of a buyer’s decision.

Submarkets

Countywide averages conceal different local patterns. Spring Branch’s median list price fell 11.7% year over year while its Home Value Index edged up 0.1%. In New Braunfels ZIP 78130, list price fell 6.8% and the index fell 1.8%; in ZIP 78132, the figures were -6.2% and -1.8%. Canyon Lake’s list price was down 6.9% and its index down 2.2%. Those comparisons suggest softer advertised pricing across several areas, but the paired measures do not describe identical homes or periods.

Bulverde moved the other way on both measures: its median list price rose 9.9% year over year and its Home Value Index rose 0.9%. The gap between those changes is a reminder that the mix of homes put up for sale can move a median asking price far more than a home-value index. A buyer should use the relevant area and comparable homes rather than assume the county’s -5% list-price change applies to every neighborhood; a seller should make the same distinction when setting an asking price.

Realtor.com ZIP-level inventory data. Small markets swing month to month.

How Comal compares

Comal’s 5% annual decline in median list price sits between several nearby markets. Hays County fell 9.7%, Guadalupe fell 1.1%, Kendall rose 2.1%, Williamson fell 7.5%, and Bexar fell 3.4%. Texas listings were down 2.8% and U.S. listings 2.2%. These figures show that softer asking prices are not confined to Comal, while the size of the change varies considerably by market. They are annual listing comparisons, not a ranking of closed-sale returns.

The Home Value Index offers a separate check. Hays was down 3.4%, Guadalupe 1.8%, Kendall 0.8%, Williamson 4.8%, and Bexar 2.3%, compared with Comal’s 1% decline. On that measure, Comal’s annual weakness was milder than most of those peers, despite its larger asking-price decline than Guadalupe or Bexar. The disagreement cautions against treating one month’s listing mix as a clean measure of underlying value. It also keeps the call focused on the next several months rather than a single headline price.

Realtor.com county, state and national inventory data.

Risks and outlook

Bull case: Pending sales keep growing faster than active listings, price cuts continue to ease, and mortgage rates retreat enough to improve the modeled payment share. Under those conditions, the positive side of the model’s -3% to 1% three-to-six-month range becomes more plausible. Next month, watch the pending-to-active ratio, the three-month price-cut average and the latest rate reading together. One favorable measure would be less persuasive if another turns against buyers.

Base case: Contracts and available listings remain broadly aligned while annual home-value growth stays slightly negative. That combination is consistent with the Neutral index reading, Medium conviction and a range-bound 12-month view. The next Home Value Index release will test whether its positive three-month momentum persists; the next listing report will show whether softer asking prices are bringing additional buyers into contract. Neither indicator alone establishes the path of eventual closing prices.

Bear case: Pending sales weaken relative to active supply, price cuts climb again, or elevated mortgage rates keep the payment share rising as September’s permit growth adds future competition. Those developments would strengthen the case for the negative side of the stated range. The monthly Monitor will revisit the call when the next primary data arrive; readers can inspect the current series and definitions in the November Housing Monitor data.

Track record

October’s call was Moderately Bearish, with a -3% to 0% three-to-six-month price range and High conviction. Its three-month and six-month grading windows are still pending, so it has neither a confirmed hit nor a confirmed miss. November’s Neutral call is a change in assessment as the incoming indicators diverge: asking and annual value measures remain soft, while pending sales and the supply balance have held steadier. The Monitor will grade both calls against the Zillow Home Value Index at their stated horizons rather than treat this month’s revision as proof that either forecast succeeded.

Graded against the Zillow Home Value Index for Comal County.